Thursday, July 18, 2013

On a Roll

Last year, about this time, I was teaching a class on experimental design techniques. Wanting the students to "develop a taste for interactions," I experimented with my basic recipe of cinnamon rolls that I've been making for years. I'm teaching the same course this week and decided to experiment once again with my basic recipe. This time, however, I used different factors. Here are the questions I wanted this experiment to answer:

1. Is an orange-flavored dough preferred to the basic plain dough that I normally use?
2. Is an orange-cream cheese icing better than the plain sugar glaze that I normally use?
3. Is it OK to freeze the cinnamon rolls? Here, I was speculating that freezing the cinnamon rolls wouldn't necessarily make them taste better. However, if the test subjects couldn't tell a difference, that would be a "win" for me. I would be able to make these rolls well in advance for my friends and co-workers instead of baking at 5:00 am before heading to work.
4. Is an individual serving of a cinnamon roll that is baked in a muffin cup preferred to one that is taken from a batch baked in a larger pan that I normally use?
5. Do UT fans have different preferences re: cinnamon rolls than those who are not UT supporters? Here, I was speculating that orange-blooded folks would prefer the orange variations . . . no matter what. In contrast, I was speculating that the non-UT fans would say they didn't like any of the orange variations . . . no matter what.

As before, for those of you who just want to bypass the details and simply find the answers to these questions, simply scroll to the bottom of this post. For the rest of you . . .

Here is another way of listing the factors, or changes, that I wanted to try:

Factor:            Current Condition:      Change to Try:
A: Dough          Plain                          Orange
B: Icing             Plain sugar glaze       Orange cream cheese icing
C: Frozen          Not frozen                 Frozen
D: Muffin Cup  No muffin cup           Muffin cup
E: UT Fan         Not a UT fan             UT fan

I made 8 different batches of cinnamon rolls, each with differing combinations of above.

The first four batches were made fresh this morning (not frozen):

Batch 1: Plain dough with plain sugar glaze icing that has been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a UT fan


Batch 2:  Orange dough with plain sugar glaze icing that has not been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a non-UT fan


Batch 3: Plain dough with orange cream cheese icing that has not been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a UT fan


Batch 4: Orange dough with orange cream cheese icing that has been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a non-UT fan


The last four batches were made a few weeks ago and frozen. I took them out of the freezer to thaw last night:

Batch 5: Plain dough with plain sugar glaze icing that has been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a non-UT fan


Batch 6: Orange dough with plain sugar glaze icing that has not been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a UT fan


Batch 7: Plain dough with orange cream cheese icing that has not been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a non-UT fan


Batch 8: Orange dough with orange cream cheese icing that has been baked in a muffin cup, then tasted by a UT fan


As before, I asked each student/co-worker who wanted to participate in this experiment to taste a particular batch (or batches) of cinnamon rolls. (A big thanks to all who participated!) Then, each was asked to provide a "likeability" score (using a 1-5 scale) by completing the following survey:



I collected 8 surveys for each batch, for a total of 64 observations.
After analyzing the results, I learned that baking in a muffin cup and freezing the cinnamon rolls significantly affected the likeability score. This is depicted in the chart below by the very long bar that exceeds the reference line.


Even though most of the responses were very favorable, I learned that using a muffin cup (Factor D) had a negative effect on the likeability score. That is, the average likeability score from those batches where I used the muffin cup was statistically significantly lower than the average likeability score from those batches that I baked in a regular large pan. (see fourth graph below). Hindsight, I think this makes sense. I know that I prefer the gooey centers as opposed to the outer crusts. The rolls baked in muffin cups had less gooey centers and more outer crusts.

In addition to the muffin cups, I learned that freezing the cinnamon rolls (Factor C) also had a negative effect on the likeability score. Ouch. I really didn't want to see that.


Interestingly, it appears that the average likeability score is about the same, whether or not you use orange cream cheese icing or the plain sugar glaze icing (Factor B). Also, there was essentially no difference in the likeability score among the non-UT fans and the UT fans (Factor E). That surprised me! See the second and the last graphs above.
Although changing the dough (Factor A) wasn't technically significant, the average likeability score from those batches with the orange dough appears to be heading in the right direction, as shown in the first graph above. Hmmmmm. I kept exploring. Then I uncovered that changing to the orange dough actually produced more consistent results. This is depicted in the graph below. Scores from the plain dough ranged anywhere from 1 to 5 (all over the place!); whereas, scores from the orange dough only ranged from about 3 to 5.


For this experiment, I found a clue where possibly the dough and the icing interact. That is, what happens when you combine these two variables? The data suggests that if I use the plain sugar glaze icing, then it would be best if I used the orange dough. If, however, I use the orange cream cheese icing, then it doesn't matter too much what type of dough I use. Even more surprising is the combination of the plain sugar glaze icing with the plain dough (the status quo condition). This produced the lowest likeability score!


Bottom line: Unlike the previous experiment, I now have more questions. Maybe I shouldn't "leave well enough alone" after all. I definitely want to avoid freezing the rolls and avoid using muffin cups. I definitely will continue to share my rolls with the diverse population of friends and co-workers (orange-blooded or not). At this point, I will stick with the basic sugar glaze icing. Since icing didn't matter much, why incur the added expense of cream cheese? It's the dough that I'm still a little uncertain about. So, that means more testing. I'm guessing that my students and co-workers will have no problem with that!

If you have any ideas on what changes I should try next, send them my way! :)

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